By Maroof Asudemade

There is a natural temptation, after what happened in Osun, to look across the political boundary into Oyo State and see the same storm gathering. The argument is easy to make. The All Progressives Congress in both states has experienced internal disagreements. In both states, the process of producing governorship candidates generated complaints from sections of the party. In both states, there are politicians who believe they were not sufficiently consulted or accommodated. And in both states, the opposition has tried to exploit whatever cracks exist within the APC.

But elections are not photocopy machines. What happens in Osun does not automatically happen in Oyo. Indeed, the most important lesson from Osun for Oyo APC may not be that defeat is inevitable. It may be that internal disagreement must be resolved before election day. Osun should, therefore, be treated as a warning not a prophecy.

The 2026 Osun governorship election has just provided a fresh illustration. Incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke defeated APC’s Bola Oyebamiji by 511,067 votes to 444,815, a margin of 66,252 votes. Adeleke won 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas. That result should make Oyo APC sober. But it should not make Oyo APC fatalistic.

There is a fundamental difference between the electoral circumstances in Osun and those that will confront the parties in Oyo in 2027. Ademola Adeleke was on the ballot. Seyi Makinde will not be. That difference is enormous. A sitting governor seeking another term has something every challenger would love to possess: incumbency. He has four years of visibility behind him, a record to campaign on, established structures, government officials and projects spread across the state, and the psychological advantage of asking voters to renew rather than terminate his mandate. Makinde will have none of that in 2027.

The election will take place on 6 February 2027, according to the current INEC timetable, and Makinde is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. This means that the Oyo election will not be a contest between an incumbent governor and an opposition candidate. It will be a contest over Makinde’s succession. And succession elections are fundamentally different from incumbent-retention elections.

This is where Senator Sharafadeen Alli’s candidacy becomes particularly interesting. His principal opponent, Bimbo Adekanmbi, is not merely another candidate asking Oyo voters to choose him on his own merits. He is the candidate openly associated with the continuation of the Makinde political project.

When the Allied Peoples Movement adopted Adekanmbi as its consensus candidate, he said his administration would not derail from the “Omituntun vision” of the present administration. The APM leadership described him as someone who would continue Makinde’s work. Makinde subsequently made the endorsement even clearer, publicly identifying Adekanmbi as his preferred successor and presenting the proposed transition as “Omituntun 3.0.”

There is strength in that. But there is also danger. Adekanmbi’s greatest electoral asset may eventually become his greatest electoral liability: continuity. If voters believe that Makinde has performed exceptionally well, continuity will be attractive. But if a significant number of voters believes that the government has accumulated unresolved problems, continuity becomes an invitation to scrutinise those problems. And after eight years, every government has baggage. And Makinde is no exception.

He will leave behind achievements, and his supporters will rightly remind voters of them. But he will also leave behind controversies and grievances. Some of these grievances are already attached to very tangible things such as homes, land, businesses, roads and communities.

The Circular Road controversy is one such issue. The proposed corridor around the Ibadan Circular Road has generated protests and anxiety among residents and property owners whose homes and investments have already been affected by the mindless acquisition. The government has defended its position and argued that the corridor was legally established before the present administration. It has also been established that what was proposed for the corridors was 150 meters but Makinde extended it to 500 meters on both sides of the road. But political perception does not always wait for the final word from a government statement. For the man who believes his property is threatened, the issue is not abstract. It is personal.

The same political calculation applies to allegations of land grabbing involving individuals perceived to be close to the government, and are alleged to be working for Makinde. Every allegation must be subjected to evidence and due process; no responsible political commentary should pronounce people guilty merely because accusations have been made. But elections are not conducted in courtrooms. They are fought in communities, and rumours thrive in communities.  And the perception that government is unfairly taking land, favouring the connected or trampling on the interests of ordinary citizens can become politically potent.

The opposition does not have to invent such grievances. It only needs to give people who already have them a political language. That is why the 2027 election could become a referendum not necessarily on whether Makinde did nothing, but on whether eight years of Makinde is enough.

This is a different question from the one Adeleke faced in Osun. Adeleke was asking Osun voters for another term. Adekanmbi will be asking Oyo voters to give Makinde’s political project another life after Makinde has left office. That is a much harder proposition to sell if the electorate is experiencing fatigue.

There is another important distinction. Senator Sharafadeen Alli is not an unknown opposition politician. He has been deeply embedded in Oyo politics for years. He has served in important state political positions and currently represents Oyo South in the Senate. When he declared his governorship ambition, he presented himself as someone who had consulted leaders, traditional rulers and stakeholders across the state and who understood the state’s political and developmental challenges. That gives him an important advantage: experience without incumbency baggage.

He can argue that he knows government without being responsible for the last eight years of state government. That is a politically useful position.

But Alli is too politically savvy to make the mistake of believing that Makinde’s baggage will automatically deliver him victory. It will not. The APC must still earn the votes.

And this brings us back to Osun. The most dangerous thing Oyo APC could do now is to study Osun and learn the wrong lesson. The lesson is not that consensus candidates cannot win. The lesson is that a party cannot afford to leave wounded members bleeding until election day. A candidate may emerge through consensus and still win convincingly if the party subsequently becomes genuinely united.

But if those who lost the ticket feel insulted, excluded or politically abandoned, they can become indifferent to the candidate’s success. Political parties sometimes make the mistake of believing that because people remain physically inside the party, they remain emotionally committed to its candidate. That is not always true. A politician can attend every meeting and still quietly work for another outcome. The good thing about this development is that Senator Alli has not rested from consultations and fence-mending visitations since he was declared the candidate. Oyo APC leadership has also constituted a strong reconciliation committee headed two prominent party heavyweights: Chief Olufemi Lanlehin and Professor Taoheed Adedoja. Both Sarafadeen Alli and Oyo APC are leaving no stone unturned.

Yet, the task before Alli is bigger than winning the APC ticket. He must win the APC family first and keep them united until the election period. Fortunately, Oyo APC has something Osun’s experience teaches it to value: time.

The party has an opportunity to reconcile. It has an opportunity to bring former aspirants into the campaign. It has an opportunity to give party leaders genuine responsibilities. It has an opportunity to reassure those who feel marginalised that the victory of Alli will not mean their political extinction. And it has an opportunity to make the 2027 project collective.

The APC’s formal unveiling of Alli has already been accompanied by calls for reconciliation and unity, with the party leadership openly acknowledging that internal division could jeopardise its chances. That is the right instinct. Already, most of the guber aspirants have closed ranks with Sarafadeen Alli.

Then there is the geography of Oyo politics. Oyo is not one political constituency. Ibadan is enormously important, but Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, Oyo and Ibarapa cannot be treated as electoral footnotes. A governorship candidate must build a coalition broad enough to satisfy the constitutional requirement for victory and politically broad enough to survive the intense competition within the state.

Alli’s background and Senate representation give him a platform from which to pursue such a statewide coalition. His campaign must therefore resist the temptation to become merely an Ibadan campaign. He must become a candidate for Oyo State.

And there is another factor that should not be dismissed: religious balance. I would be cautious about saying that Oyo voters will automatically reject a Christian after eight years of a Christian governor. Oyo people are more sophisticated than that. Religion alone does not determine Oyo elections. But neither should political analysts pretend that religion is irrelevant. Religious balancing matters in Nigeria.

After eight years under a Christian governor, there may be voters who feel that the next governor should come from the other side of the religious divide. That sentiment may not dominate the election, but in a close contest, even a relatively modest shift in voter preference can become decisive.

Alli’s Muslim identity therefore gives him a potential advantage. But he should not campaign as a “Muslim candidate.” He should campaign as an Oyo candidate who happens to be Muslim. It is a valid distinction.

His message should be that Christians, Muslims and adherents of traditional faiths have equal ownership of Oyo State. If he gets that balance right, religious sentiment may work quietly in his favour without becoming a source of division.

There is also the question of national alignment. The APC is the governing party at the federal level, and Alli’s candidacy gives Oyo APC a direct connection to the national political establishment. His declaration itself acknowledged the support of several major Oyo APC leaders and identified President Bola Tinubu as a central figure in the progressive political tradition to which he belongs.

That connection can help with resources, networks and federal-state political coordination. But again, Abuja cannot vote in Oyo. Only Oyo voters can. The APC will therefore have to translate national political capital into local electoral credibility.

This is where Alli’s personality and campaign strategy become crucial. He must avoid the traditional opposition mistake of campaigning against everything the incumbent has done. Oyo voters are not likely to believe that Makinde’s eight years produced nothing. There are roads, projects, institutions and policies that supporters of the present government will defend.

A wiser Alli campaign would say: “We acknowledge what worked. We will correct what failed. And we will do what has not been done.” That is a more credible message than: “everything is bad.”

The same principle applies to Makinde himself. The APC should not make the election a personal vendetta against the outgoing governor. Makinde will leave office with a record, supporters and political influence. Demonising him may strengthen his supporters. The smarter strategy is to separate Makinde the person from Makinde the record. Praise what deserves praise. Challenge what deserves challenge. Then ask the electorate the question that matters: “After eight years, is continuity really the best option for Oyo?” That question could become the defining question of the election.

There is another vulnerability in the APM arrangement that should not be overlooked. Adekanmbi is running on a platform that is closely tied to Makinde’s political structure rather than the traditional PDP label. The APM’s Oyo primary was effectively an affirmation, and the party’s legislative candidates are drawn from the faction of the PDP associated with Makinde. That arrangement may consolidate Makinde’s political family. But it also makes the election easier to frame.

The APC can portray the contest as a choice between continuity and change. Adekanmbi can say: “Continue the work.” Alli can say: “Let us improve on it and begin a new chapter.” That is a contest voters understand.

There is, however, one thing Alli must never underestimate: Makinde’s political strength. The outgoing governor has demonstrated considerable electoral skill. His ability to shape alliances, build structures and influence political realignments should not be dismissed. The emergence of Adekanmbi under the APM arrangement demonstrates that Makinde is not simply retiring from politics; he is attempting to shape the political future beyond his tenure. That makes 2027 a serious contest.

But it also makes the election more interesting. For the first time since Makinde became governor, voters will be choosing someone other than Makinde to lead Oyo State. The emotional equation changes. The psychological equation changes. The political equation changes. And that is why Osun cannot simply be imported into Oyo.

Osun had an incumbent seeking another mandate. Oyo will have a departing incumbent seeking a successor. Osun’s Adeleke could ask voters to judge him personally. Oyo’s Adekanmbi will inevitably ask voters to judge Makinde’s legacy as well as his own capacity. There’s Makinde’s legacy to judge. But where is Adekanmbi’s capacity to scrutinise? He only held two appointed posts in the past and his undoing may be his alleged reckless utterance that he covered up all financial sleaze under Ajimobi administration he served as Commissioner for Finance.

Osun APC’s candidate was trying to break the incumbent’s hold. Oyo APC’s candidate will be trying to convince voters that the outgoing administration should not choose its own successor. Those are different elections. So, can Senator Sharafadeen Alli defeat Bimbo Adekanmbi? Yes. Is he guaranteed to? Certainly not.

But is the comparison with Osun sufficient reason to conclude that Oyo APC is heading for the same fate? Absolutely not. In fact, the greatest danger to Alli may not be Adekanmbi. It may be APC itself.

If APC reconciles its factions, builds a disciplined statewide structure, presents Alli as a candidate of competence rather than merely the beneficiary of party calculations, and turns existing public grievances into substantive policy issues, it will give itself a genuine chance. If it fails to reconcile, Osun may indeed become a prophecy. If it reconciles, Osun becomes what it ought to be: a lesson.

And there is a final irony in all of this. The people warning that Oyo APC may suffer Osun’s fate are inadvertently identifying exactly what the APC must avoid. They are saying: do not underestimate internal anger. Do not assume that a consensus candidate automatically commands everybody’s loyalty. Do not ignore those who feel excluded. Do not go into an election with a divided house.

All of that is correct. But the conclusion should not be despair. It should be preparation. Senator Sharafadeen Alli has a potentially favourable electoral environment: an outgoing governor rather than a sitting candidate; an opposition opponent whose principal campaign proposition is continuity; unresolved public grievances that can become electoral issues; the possibility of religious balancing after eight years; a national APC structure; a candidate with substantial political experience; and an opportunity to construct a genuinely statewide coalition.

None of these guarantees victory. Together, however, they make victory entirely plausible.

The 2027 Oyo governorship election will not be won by whoever shouts loudest about Osun. It will be won by whoever understands Oyo. And Oyo is not Osun. Osun has spoken. Oyo will have its own voice. The question is not whether Osun’s story will be repeated. The question is whether Oyo voters, after eight years of Makinde, will choose continuity, or change.

And Oyo is most likely going to choose change which Alli stands for, away from the fatigue of continuity that Adekanmbi represents.